การพยากรณ์และการวางแผนความต้องการสำหรับโรงแรมและที่พักสำหรับนักท่องเที่ยวกลุ่มเป้าหมายหลักที่มาเที่ยวพื้นที่เป้าหมายในกรุงเทพมหานคร หลังการแพร่ระบาดของโรคติดเชื้อไวรัสโคโรนา 2019

Chatpon Mongkalig

Authors

Chatpon Mongkalig Institute of Metropolitan Development, Navamindradhiraj University

Keywords:

Demand Planning and Forecasting, Time Series Analysis, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Design of Experiments

Abstract

The objectives of this research were to analyze the appropriate demand forecasting techniques for the forecasting of the number of tourists who visited and stayed in Bangkok. Design of experiments method was applied to determine the most appropriate forecasting method in the optimization experiment. For experimental design, a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) was generated and Analysis of Variance was carried out. According to the ANOVA, the forecasting methods had statistically significant effect on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). According to the main effects plots, the appropriate forecasting method was the Winters’ method with 12 months seasonal length, which was a suitable forecasting method for the number of tourists in Bangkok forecasting with the seasonal demand. Additionally, the confirmation test was conducted using the Paired T-Test and it was found that the average of MAPE using the Winters’ method was significantly lower than the average of MAPE using moving average. It can be concluded that the average of MAPE using the Winters’ method decreased by 93.4% compared to the average of MAPE using moving average.

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