What Can the Log-periodic Power Law Tell about Stock Market Crash in India?

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Varun Sarda
Yamini Karmarkar
Neha Lakhotia
Pratima Sen

Abstract

Abstract

Stock markets have been of great interest to investors and academicians due to theuncertainty and expected pecuniary profits attached to them. For a few years, the Indian capital market has seen high volatility and market crashes. Market crashes are often preceded by speculative bubbles with two main characteristics: (a) power law acceleration of the market price, and (b) logperiodic oscillations. This paper attempts to investigate whether the Indian stock market follows log-periodicity. Here log-periodicity refers to the fact that the oscillations are periodic in the logarithm of the time-to-crash. Speculative bubbles of financial markets show similarities in the way they evolve and grow. This particular oscillating movement can be captured by the log-periodic power law. If market follows log-periodicity, a crash may be predicted. The analysis shows that logperiodic oscillations are present in the Indian stock market.

Keywords : log-periodic, stock market, stock market crashes

JEL Classification : G01, G19, P43

Article Details

How to Cite
Sarda, V., Karmarkar, Y., Lakhotia, N., & Sen, P. (2013). What Can the Log-periodic Power Law Tell about Stock Market Crash in India?. Asian Journal of Applied Economics, 17(2), 45–54. Retrieved from https://so01.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/AEJ/article/view/10444
Section
Research Articles