An Economic Analysis of the Law on the Level of Significance of Criminal Penalties and Arrest Probability for the Degree of Property Crimes

Abstract

Crime is a persistent social phenomenon arising from the committing of criminal offenses against the law of the state.  Criminals' incentives or motivations for criminal acts are affected by many factors such as the severity of penalties, the chances of getting arrested, level of education, gender, socio-cultural factors, and so on.  This research focuses on the correlation between the severity of criminal penalties and the probability of arrest and the seriousness of crime using concepts and processes of economic law.  This includes mathematical modeling as well as testing the statistical significance of the models. The results show that it is the severity of legal penalty that reduces property offenses.  A person's behavior changes when they feel they may face a high magnitude of criminal penalty.  In other words, in judging whether to perform a criminal act towards property, criminals do not consider the probability of arrest but look at the criminal penalty. The Thai legislature will be able to take this conclusion into consideration in order to modify or create appropriate legal measures in the future. One of the most suitable policies is increasing the size of legal penalties in the Thai criminal code. When people perceive severe punishments, they will commit fewer crimes. Increasing the size of legal penalties can be achieved in a number of ways, including increasing the size of fines and requiring longer prison sentences.