The Causal Impact of the State Welfare Card on Monetary Poverty
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Abstract
The state welfare card, commonly known as “the card for the poor”, is a large-scale unconditional cash transfer programme implemented in Thailand since October 2017. However, Thailand saw an increase in the national poverty rate from 7.87 percent to 9.85 percent between 2017 and 2018. This is the fourth increase in poverty incidence in the country in 30 years despite mild economic growth, having no economic crisis, and large-scale cash transfer program. The recent increase in poverty incidence in Thailand calls for better understanding of this policy and the extent to which it affects poverty. In this context, regression discontinuity method is employed to investigate the causal impacts of Thailand’s state welfare programme on monetary poverty. The study finds that the programme does not increase total consumption expenditure, as intended. In addition, the programme causes a decline in food expenditure. The underlying reason for the lack of impact is possibly due to inclusion and exclusion errors. The findings underscore the need to reconsider the programme at both design and implementation stages.
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