Common Factors Affecting the Defeat in the 2023 General Election of Local Political Dynasties in Chiang Mai, Chonburi, and Samut Prakan Provinces

Abstract

This research aims to: (1) study the factors affecting the electoral defeat and victory of the political dynasty groups in Chiang Mai, Chonburi, and Samut Prakan in the 2023 general election; (2) study the political context and popularity of the Move Forward Party in Chiang Mai, Chonburi, and Samut Prakan in 2023; (3) study the methods used by the political dynasty groups to consolidate their voter base in Chiang Mai, Chonburi, and Samut Prakan in 2023. This is a qualitative study, collecting data through document reviews and in-depth interviews with 14 key informants.

Finding 1: The factors affecting the electoral defeat and victory of political dynasty groups in Chiang Mai, Chonburi, and Samut Prakan in 2023 include the popularity of the Move Forward Party, reflecting the people’s demand for political change in the area, the influence of the new generation, the lack of expertise of political dynasty groups in utilizing social media for electoral campaigns, and vote splitting due to multiple major parties fielding candidates.

Finding 2: The political context and popularity of the Move Forward Party in Chiang Mai, Chonburi, and Samut Prakan in 2023 show that political dynasty groups have held power for a long time, causing the perception among the electorate that they represent a form of “political business” and a monopoly of power, which in turn results in greater popularity for the Move Forward Party’s leader. Consequently, the new generation prefers to vote for Move Forward Party candidates over those from other parties.

Lastly, the study finds that the methods used by political dynasty groups in Chiang Mai, Chonburi, and Samut Prakan in 2023 are predominantly clientelistic, employing a political patronage system. These groups pay significant attention to their networks of vote canvassers, subdistrict heads, and community leaders in contrast to the Move Forward Party’s approach. The political dynasty groups are successful business people with strong social standing, employing strategies of voter mobilization by visiting and addressing community problems. This is especially apparent in Chonburi and Samut Prakan, where political dynasty groups frequently attend social events ordinations, weddings, and funerals  to consolidate their voter base.