An Analysis of Insurgency in Three Southern Provinces of Thailand by Using VAR Model



  • ญาเรศ อัครพัฒนานุกูล Department of Politics, Faculty of Political Science and Law, Burapha University
  • Domrongphol Sangmanee คณะรัฐศาสตร์และนิติศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยบูรพา


Insurgency, Intrastate Conflict, VAR Model, Three Southern Provinces of Thailand


This study aims to analyze the level of violence from intrastate conflict in three southern provinces of Thailand – Pattani province, Yala province and Narathiwat province - during 2010 – 2018 by applying VAR Model. The research addresses two groups of variables including independent and dependent variables, employing the socio-economic conditions and political demographic structures as independent variables and the numbers of violence from intrastate conflict as a dependent variable. The research found the relationship amongst these variables. That is to say, the socio-economic and political demographic conditions are sufficient to play a role as factors that trigger the intrastate conflict in these three southern provinces. In addition, the practice of VAR model, which is previously used in the field of computer science, sheds light on the analytical reliability of big data and provides an alternative way to the study of politics in this study.


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