OPTIMIZING COMMUNITY FISH PROCESSING THROUGH INTEGRATED FORECASTING, LINEAR PROGRAMMING, AND ECONOMIC VALUATION IN THAILAND
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14456/aamr.2026.4Keywords:
Production Planning Optimization, Linear Programming, Time-Series Forecasting, Bottleneck Analysis, Community-Based EnterprisesAbstract
Community-based fish processing enterprises face severe uncertainties in raw material supply and market demand, leading to persistent underutilization of capacity and significant opportunity costs. To address these complex challenges, this applied research study developed a production planning system for salted fourfinger threadfin producers in Thailand. Using a participatory action research approach, the study successfully integrated time-series forecasting with a linear programming (LP) optimization model guided by bottleneck analysis. Results showed that exponential smoothing clearly outperformed alternative forecasting methods in handling data volatility. Furthermore, the LP model effectively optimized raw material allocation across preparation, drying, and storage stages. Bottleneck analysis identified sun drying as the primary constraint; scenario simulations demonstrated that expanding drying and cold storage capacities substantially reduce distress sales and improve throughput. A five-year economic evaluation validated the intervention's financial viability, yielding a Benefit-Cost Ratio of 1.95 and an Internal Rate of Return of 32.49%. Ultimately, integrating forecasting with LP-based planning significantly enhances operational efficiency, economic value, and sustainability for community-scale fishery enterprises.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Teerayuth MOOLENG, Wutthichai KHONGYOUNG, Abdulrohman SA-LAEH, Paweena JEHARRONG, Abbas PALIKET, Amart SULONG
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