Changes of daily rainfall intensity in Thailand from 1955 to 2019
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Abstract
Analysis of daily rainfall intensity in Thailand from 1955 to 2019 revealed remarkable changes in lower and upper distribution tails, highlighting a significant decrease in light rainfall events but a significant increase in heavy rainfall events. Leading patterns of trends in all ten rainfall categories for wet-season, dry-season and annual periods demonstrated that most areas of Thailand experienced increasing contribution of heavy rainfall events. Results also indicated a significant correlation between contribution trends of light and heavy rainfall events in Thailand and changes in global mean temperature (GMT), supporting the notion that increased heavy rainfall intensities at both local and national levels followed anthropogenic-induced increase in atmospheric moisture. Regression-based extrapolated values for future levels of global warming at 1.5 °C and 2 °C indicated that an additional half-degree of warming will result in almost a 50% increase in heavy rainfall events in Thailand. This study presents scientific information to support effective management of water in the agriculture sector and adapt to the impacts of climate-related extremes and disasters. Studies based on high-resolution simulated climate data and space and ground-based observations are important to better understand the associations between anthropogenic-induced effects, large-scale atmospheric circulation and local changes in Thailand’s rainfall intensity distribution, especially for daily and sub-daily time scales.
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