Applying of economic index data for municipal solid waste quantity prediction in Thailand

Abstract

The population increased from past to present until the expansion of the community brought economic and prosperity in the society, but it also increases the municipal solid waste quantity. This research has studied the correlation between municipal solid waste quantity with economic growth factors in Thailand since 1993- 2019 to create an equation to predict the changes of municipal solid waste quantity that may occur in the future. This information analysis was organized into 4 datasets, 27 years (108 quarters: 1993-2019), 9 years (36 quarters: 1993-2001), 9 years (36 quarters: 2002-2010), and 9 years (36 quarters: 2011-2019) found that the population increase of all of 27 years from 58.44 million people in 1993 to 66.56 million people in 2019 same as municipal solid waste quantity constantly increase from 10.91 million tons in 1993 to 28.71 million tons in 2019, Causing the difference of change of each year (36 quarters) between municipal solid waste quantity with economic growth factors in Thailand. The correlation between municipal solid waste quantity with economic growth factors found that most of all 4 datasets have a correlation with almost all economic growth factors (R>0.6) except retail sales index (36 quarters: 2002-2010) and consumer price index, core consumer price index (36 quarters: 2011-2019) have a correlation less than 0.6 (R<0.6). The creation of equation municipal solid waste quantity predict from 4 datasets show that 2 datasets were suitable for application considering by R² value more than 0.6 were equation predict of 27 years (108 quarters: 1993-2019) for prediction in long-times between 10-27 years and equation predict of 9 years (36 quarters: 2011-2019) for prediction in short-times between 1-9 years.