Developing a model for predicting the dynamics of cattle infestation by gastrointestinal nematodes in Aceh Province, Indonesia
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Abstract
High cases of gastrointestinal nematode (GIN) parasitism in cattle lead to substantial economic loss in grazing cattle in developing countries, including Indonesia, resulting from climatic change and poor sanitation. This research aimed to collect data from the field and subsequently develop a model to predict the dynamic of the infestation of cattle by GIN at various places (highlands and lowlands) in Aceh Province, Indonesia in February-August 2017 employing two approaches: a laboratory approach which collected and analysed cattle faeces and a survey approach. Simulation, Analysis, and Modeling Software II (SAAM II) was employed to conduct data analysis and develop a model for nematode infestation in cattle. This modeling software represented eggs per gram (EPG) of faeces influenced by rainfall. The results confirmed that rainfall inhibited larvae development in 91 days and reduced the number of eggs secreted by cattle in 20 days. Changes in the environment are believed to be an approach that can support avoiding an increase in EPG. The development of this basic model is expected to be the initial stage for a further and more advanced model to comprehensively enhance strategies to control GIN in cattle.
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