Increasing compound hot-rainfall extreme in Thailand during 1970-2022
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Abstract
Compound extremes often result in larger impacts than individual events and have recently received increasing attention. Based on quality-controlled observed data and commonly used empirical-based statistical method, this study examined changes in compound hot-rainfall extreme (CHRE) and their possible contributing factors in Thailand during 1970-2022. Analysis reveals that heavy rainfall preceded by extremely hot weather within three days in Thailand exhibited widespread and significant increases and acceleration in recent years. The results show that increased global mean temperature (GMT) accounted for 66% of Thailand’s CHRE changes, while short-term variations in CHRE were significantly correlated (rs =-0.40) with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Moreover, the effects of urbanisation tended to amplify occurrence of CHRE. Our findings highlight that natural-to-anthropogenic climate change and localized urbanisation processes have already expanded the range of climatic hazards in Thailand with their complex combination appearing to dynamically induce back-to-back occurrence of CHRE. Since increased frequency of weather extremes and compound events are expected under a warming world, detection and attribution studies are further required to gain insight of the physical processes and drivers of CHRE, to improve their risk assessment and to develop effective adaptation measures.
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