The statistical model for forecasting the amount of a private automobile which were newly registered according to the law in Thailand

Abstract

        The objective of this research was to establish a model for forecasting the amount of a private automobiles which were newly registered according to the law in Thailand that was collected every month since January, 2006 to March, 2011. Using Exponential Smoothing technique and Box-Jenkin’s technique to analyses this data. After that, forecasting models were compared in order to find the most appropriate model. The result found that model from Box-Jenkin’s technique got the minimum MSE at 0.0000 and had the forecasting model as (1-0.889B12)(1-B)Zt-1 = (1-0.436B)at.