Scenario planning for agricultural land-use change in Chi-Mun river basin, Northeast of Thailand (Thai)

Abstract

      Scenarios built on several variables were to help develop an integrated set of crop production patterns for agricultural land use planning in Chi-Mun River basin. Scenarios were defined by combining information and knowledge from the experts from different stakeholder groups. Geographic Information System (GIS) was used for spatial analysis and interpret the result of the scenarios. The purpose of this study is to explore the future conditions of 4 major crops area including rice, sugarcane, cassava and maize. Potential areas were chosen from 4 different scenarios of business as usual', 'food bowl', ùbio-fuel' and 'integrated farming' for further development plan.

      The outcomes from the scenario analysis were displayed as spatial information on the semi-detail scale. They can explain where the crops should be developed but it overestimates on calculating of particular land use area as a result of the scale.