The Study of Factors Influencing Thailand Inter-Provincial Commodity Freight by Applying Gravity Model

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Nantarat Tangvitoontham

Abstract

This research aims to study factors affecting inter-provincial commodity freight in Thailand. The study used secondary data from CUBE CARGO database in year 2017 provided by Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning, Ministry of Transport. The office surveyed 5,852 observations on the freight volumes at inspection points and container yards across Thailand. This study applied the Gravity model to estimate freight demand by using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation techniques.  The results showed that the PPML technique explain the model better than OLS estimation. The PPML with the Pseudo R2 value equal to 0.673 and the coefficient signs of important factors are as aspects. The distance has a negative effect on freight volumes between provinces. The distance coefficient is -0.787. However, the provinces incomes, population, plantation areas, the shipping port and the industrial estate in the original provinces are significantly increase in the overall inter-provincial freight volumes.  Conversely, the existing of an industrial estate in the destination provinces and the existing of container yards have negative influences of the freight volumes.

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References

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