แหล่งที่มาภายในของการเมืองภายนอก
สงครามรัสเซีย-ยูเครนในฐานะส่วนต่อขยายของการเมืองในประเทศรัสเซีย
คำสำคัญ:
สงครามรัสเซีย-ยูเครน, การย้อนทวนจินตภาพแบบที่สอง, วลาดิเมีย ปูติน, ซิโลวิกี้บทคัดย่อ
สงครามรัสเซีย-ยูเครน ซึ่งเกิดขึ้นภายหลังจากการประกาศปฏิบัติการพิเศษทางการทหารของรัสเซียในวันที่ 24 กุมภาพันธ์ 2022 นำไปสู่ความพยายามของนักวิชาการที่จะอธิบายปัจจัยที่เป็นสาเหตุของสงครามดังกล่าวจำนวนมาก โดยอาจแบ่งออกเป็น 3 กลุ่มหรือจินตภาพสามแบบของวอลส์ ที่นักวิชาการเหล่านั้นเลือกนำมาอธิบายปรากฏการณ์ดังกล่าว อย่างไรก็ดี บทความชิ้นนี้เสนอว่าการอธิบายสาเหตุของสงครามรัสเซียภายใต้จินตภาพเพียงรูปแบบใดรูปแบบหนึ่ง ไม่อาจให้ภาพที่สมบูรณ์ของสิ่งที่เกิดขึ้น ดังนั้นจึงเสนอให้นำกรอบคิดเรื่อง “การย้อนทวนจินตภาพแบบที่สอง” ของกูเรอวิทช์มาอธิบายควบคู่กับจินตภาพแบบที่สอง โดยแบ่งคำอธิบายออกเป็นสองขั้น ขั้นแรกพิจารณาปฏิสัมพันธ์ระหว่างปัจจัยภายนอกที่วางเงื่อนไขให้ตัวแสดงทางการเมืองภายในของรัสเซียคือประธานาธิบดีปูตินที่ต้องการกระชับอำนาจทางการเมืองภายใน กับกลุ่ม siloviki ที่นำเงื่อนไขเดียวกันไปใช้ในการเถลิงอำนาจภายในเครมลินขึ้นเหนือกลุ่มเสรีนิยม ส่วนขั้นที่สองมุ่งพิจารณาผลลัพธ์อันเกิดจากชัยชนะทางการเมืองภายในของประธานาธิบดีปูตินและ siloviki ที่มีต่อแนวทางการทำสงครามกับยูเครนเพื่อให้บรรลุเป้าหมายการเมืองภายในตามที่ตั้งไว้ และบีบให้รัสเซียจำเป็นที่จะต้องดึงดันทำสงครามต่อไปด้วยท่าทีที่แข็งกร้าวและไม่ยืดหยุ่นต่อไปในอนาคต
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