The Time of Janus-Faced Russia: Two Faces of State Action in the Russo-Ukrainian War

Abstract

This research article aims to comprehend the causes and dynamics of the Russo-Ukrainian war through an analysis of the relationships between internal and external factors based on the conceptual framework developed from the proposition of Peter Gourevitch's second image reversed and the two faces of state action by Michael Mastanduno et al. The article is divided into two sections. The first section focuses on domestic strategies for international goals, spanning from the pre-war period to the initial phase of the Russo-Ukrainian war. It encompasses the strategies of President Vladimir Putin's power consolidation and Putinism, along with the rise of the siloviki as the new political alliance of the ruling elite in the Kremlin. These domestic strategies aim to regain Russia's great power status to distribute power and wealth in the new international system under a multi-polar world. The second section addresses the international strategies for domestic goals during the war's expansion with a prospect of continuous escalation. The strategies involve external extraction and mobilization of legitimacy at the international level to achieve the internal objective of preserving the status quo of the Putin-Siloviki alliance and countering challenges posed by other political factions.