Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Policy during the 12th National Economic and Social Development Plan using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55164/ecbajournal.v16i1.264009Keywords:
Fiscal Policies, Multiplier, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, Bayesian EstimationAbstract
The Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Policy during the 12th National Economic and Social Development Plan using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium. The objectives of this study were 1) to analyze the changes in the responses of the variables in the economic system when the government changed the implementation of fiscal policy; 2) to analyze changes in the multiplier of variables in the economic system when the government changed fiscal policy during the 12th National Economic and Social Development Plan. During 2017 – 2021, secondary data were collected quarterly from relevant government organizations, and parameters are estimated by Bayesian statistics. Here, the results show that the test data were characterized as an independent chain with convergence and were then analyzed in the next step. The analysis of changes in the responses of variables in the economic system shows that the economic variables in the model respond to personal income tax reduction policies more than those of increasing short-, medium-, and long-term investment. For analysis of the multiplier changes of variables in the economic system, the results demonstrate that when the government implemented fiscal policy including investment increasing measures and personal income tax reduction, they caused the most positive increase in short- and medium-term of Ricardian household consumption multiplier. Also, for long-term, both measures resulted in the increase in Ricardian household consumption multiplier and private investment.
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