The Study of Thailand’s Economic Growth by Private Investment

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สุรางค์ บุญยะพงศ์ไชย

Abstract

ABSTRACT  


             The Study of Thailand’s Economic Growth by Private Investment aims to examine a significant factor to the growth of Thai economy with reference to the private investment. The explanatory variables use to explore the variation of private investment index are all vital economic factors including value of export (EX) and import (IM), net foreign investment (FI), exchange rate (Baht per USD), business confidence index (BCI), export confidence index (ExCI), consumer price index (CPI) and interest rate. Multiple regression analysis is used to test a signification of the explanatory variables which use a secondary data collected from January 2008 to December 2014. We found that there are only five explanatory variables significantly explained the variation of the private investment index which are the import value, the net foreign investment, the exchange rate (Baht per USD), the export confidence index and the consumer price index. These variables are used to construct a predictive model. Considering the degree of influence for each significant variable, we found that the consumer price index (B7=0.472) is highly impactful with the private investment index. For the other significant explanatory variables, the import value (B2=0.304), the export confidence index (B6=-0.227), the exchange rate (B4=-0.226) and the net foreign investment (B3=0.091)  are ranked with different degree of influence respectively. The variables that positively explained the variation of the private investment index are IM, FI and CPI. On the other hand, FX and ExCI negatively explained the variation. The predictive model generated R-Square of 0.918 which can be implied that 91.8% of the variation of the private investment index can be explained by 5 significant variables which is considerably constructive.

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บทความวิจัย (research article)