Forecasting the Export Quantity of Thai Fresh Durian: Box-Jenkins Method and Winters’ Additive Exponential Smoothing Method
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55164/ecbajournal.v15i3.263235Keywords:
Forecasting, Box-Jenkins method, Winters’ Additive Exponential Smoothing methodAbstract
This research aims to construct and select an appropriate forecasting model and compare two forecasting methods for the export quantity of Thai fresh durian by using the Box–Jenkins method and Winters’ Additive Exponential Smoothing method. To examine the accuracy of forecasting methods via the criteria of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). 132 data points for analyzing gathered from the website of the Office of Agricultural Economics during January 2011 to December 2021 were used and divided into 2 sets. The first data set, consisting of 120 data points and from the period of January 2011 to December 2020, were used to construct the forecasting models. The second set, consisting of 12 data points from the period of January 2022 to December 2022, were used to test and compare the accuracy of the forecasting models. The findings of forecasting indicated that Winters’ Additive Exponential Smoothing method gave the lower Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) than Box–Jenkins method, as well as selecting the mentioned model for the export quantity of Thai fresh durian
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