Analysis of the relationship of economic variables with the export of Thai orchids to the United States and Japan.

Abstract

This study aims to analysis long-term equilibrium relationships of economic variables and factors affecting Thai orchid exports to the United States and Japan, with GDP in USA, Japan, Exchange rate, CPI in USA, Japan, Thailand. The data used in this study consisted of time series during quarter 3 in 1997 to quarter 4 in 2018, using Vector Autoregressive Regressive (VAR) model with econometric tools Co-integration, Granger Causality test, Impulse Response, Variance Decomposition. The results from long-term equilibrium analysis indicated that the economic variables used in the study had a statistically significant long-term equilibrium relationship for both exports to the United States and Japan. While the economic variables that affect exports to the US are exchange rates, US GDP, Thai CPI and US CPI, different exports to Japan, there is only an exchange rate. The Impulse Response analysis showed that if the shock of the Thai exchange rate and CPI had a negative impact on orchid exports to the United States at the same time, if the shock of Thai CPI and Japanese CPI would have a negative impact on orchid exports to Japan as well. Analysis of Variance Decomposition It was found that over the long term, the variance in forecast was driven by 56.43% of the value of exports to the United States and 43.57% from the economic variables used in the study, as for exports to Japan, the variance is expected to be driven by 76.81 percent in export value and 23.19 percent from economic variables.