管理者过度自信对企业跨国投资绩效的影响研究

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杰 申

摘要

伴随数字经济的加速发展和全球价值链的持续重构,中国企业跨国投资规模不断扩大,但投资失败率亦逐渐上升。作为企业战略决策的核心,管理者的认知偏差对投资绩效产生深远影响。本文基于行为金融学与高阶梯队理论,从管理者过度自信出发,系统探讨其对企业跨国投资绩效的影响机制及边界条件。选取 2016-2022 年中国沪深交易所上市并开展跨国投资的企业为样本,构建 “心理特质——投资行为——绩效结果” 分析框架。研究发现,管理者过度自信显著降低跨国投资绩效,资源错配在其中起中介作用。同时,制度距离作为调节变量,在正式制度和非正式制度层面均可缓解过度自信的负向影响。研究建议企业在 “走出去” 过程中充分评估东道国制度差异,以优化资源配置,抑制管理者认知偏差带来的风险,提升跨国投资的成功率。

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参考

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