IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL RISKS TO ASEAN DEVELOPMENT
Keywords:
Global Risks, ASEAN, Development, Multivariate Multiple RegressionAbstract
Past analyses have yielded the determinants of development, while the obstacles of development have been overlooked. Thus, the main aim of this study was to empirically analyze the correlation between global risks (environmental, economic, social and political risks) and various aspects of development. The units of analysis in this research included the member nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) due to their potential growth compared to other regions. Three statistical models employing multivariate multiple regression were conducted along with the dimensions of development: growth of the gross domestic product (GDP), human development, and the happiness index. According to the aggregate findings that provided the panel data across ASEAN members from 2000 to 2018, the results showed that global risks can significantly explain the variation of the dimensions of development. Regarding the three statistical models, global risks are negatively associated with the aspects of development in terms of growth (GDP), human well-being and the happiness level. The most negative impacts on the aspects of development were found to be inflation (economic risk) and unemployment (social risk), respectively. With such importance, risk mitigation strategies are thus clarified through the content analysis. Ultimately, apart from the mitigation of global risks, in this empirical analysis, it is illustrated that to sustain development, institutional factors as well as central governance toward political stability from the central governments play an important role.
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