IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL RISKS TO ASEAN DEVELOPMENT

  • Patipan - Sae-Lim Graduate School of Management and Innovation-KMUTT
Keywords: Global Risks, ASEAN, Development, Multivariate Multiple Regression

Abstract

Past analyses have yielded the determinants of development, while the obstacles of development have been overlooked. Thus, the main aim of this study was to empirically analyze the correlation between global risks (environmental, economic, social and political risks) and various aspects of development. The units of analysis in this research included the member nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) due to their potential growth compared to other regions. Three statistical models employing multivariate multiple regression were conducted along with the dimensions of development: growth of the gross domestic product (GDP), human development, and the happiness index. According to the aggregate findings that provided the panel data across ASEAN members from 2000 to 2018, the results showed that global risks can significantly explain the variation of the dimensions of development. Regarding the three statistical models, global risks are negatively associated with the aspects of development in terms of growth (GDP), human well-being and the happiness level. The most negative impacts on the aspects of development were found to be inflation (economic risk) and unemployment (social risk), respectively. With such importance, risk mitigation strategies are thus clarified through the content analysis. Ultimately, apart from the mitigation of global risks, in this empirical analysis, it is illustrated that to sustain development, institutional factors as well as central governance toward political stability from the central governments play an important role.

 

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Alexopoulos, EC. (2010). Introduction to Multivariate Regression Analysis. Hippokratia. 14(1): 23-28.
Asian Development Bank (ADB). (2010). Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects. ADB Economics Working Paper Series No.
220. Japan. ADB.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) Institution. (2014). ASEAN 2030 Toward a Borderless Economic Community. Japan. ADB.
Babbie, E. (2007). The Practice of Social Research (Vol. 11). Belmont: Wadsworth.
Barro, J. R. (1997). Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 106(2): 407-443.
Blais, M. R., Boucher, C., Sabourin, S. and Vallerand, R. J. (1990). Toward a Motivational Model of Couple Happiness. Journal of Personality
and Social Psychology. 59(5): 1021-1031.
Blanchflower, D. G., and Oswald, A. J. (2003). Money, Sex and Happiness: An Empirical. Scandinavian Journal of Economics. 106(3): 393-
415.
Boztosun, D., Ulucak, S. Z., and Aksoylu, S. (2016). The Role of Human Capital in Economic Growth. Economics World. 4(3): 101-110.
Cavanagh, S. (1997). Content analysis: concepts, methods and applications. Nurse Researcher, 4(3), 5-16.
Church, H. A. and Burke, W. W. (2017). Four Trends Shaping the Future of Organizations and Organization Development. OD Practitioner.
49(3). 14-22.
Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO). (2004). “Enterprise risk management-integrate framework”,
New York, NY., available online at: http://www.coso.org.
Costanzw, R., Hart, M., Posner, S., and Talberth, J. (2009). Beyond GDP: The Need for New Measures of Progress. The Pardee Paper. 4(1); 2-
46.
Edward, T., and Ramayah, M. (2016). The Determinants of Inflation: An ASEAN Perspective. Taylor’s Business Review. 6(1); 49-72.
FarahEffera, S., N., Affandi, S. and Mahmood, W. N. (2014). Financial Development and Economic Growth in ASEAN: Evidence from Panel
Data. MPRA Paper. 22(1): 1- 10.
Foster, J., Brakus, E., and Yavorsky, C. (2006). Understanding and Using Advanced Statistics. London: SAGE Publications, Inc.
Hair, J. F., Black, W. C., Babin, B.J., & Anderson, R. E. (2010). Multivariate data analysis: A global perspective. New York: Pearson.
Heish. H. F. and Shannon, S. E. (2005). Three Approaches to Qualitative Content Analysis. Qualitative Health Research. 15(10): 1277-1278.
Ho, H. F. (2015). Matching University Graduates’ Competences with Employers’ Needs in Taiwan. International Education Studies. 8(4): 122-
136.
International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2019). IMF Country Report. 19/100: 1-91.
Isola, W. A. and Alani, R. A. (2015). Human Capital Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria. Asian Economic
and Financial Review. 2(7):813-827
Jacob, S.A. and Furgerson, S. P. (2012). Writing Interview Protocols and Conducting Interviews: Tips for Students New to the Field of
Qualitative Research. The Qualitative Report. 17(6): 1-10.
Jenmana, T. (2018). Income Inequality, Political Instability, and the Thai Democratic Struggle. The Paris School of Economics Masters in
Analysis and Policy in Economics. Working Paper. France.
Jorion, P. (2011). Financial Risk Manager Handbook Plus Test Bank. New Jersey: John Wiley & Son, Inc.
Jermsittiparsert, K & Sae-Lim, P. (2019). Does the Fourth Industrial Revolution is a Panacea? Risks towards the Fourth Industrial Revolution:
Evidence in the Thai Economy.
Marchetti, A. M. (2012). Enterprise Risk Management Best Practices. New Jersey: John Wiley& Sons.
Mundula, L. and Salustri, A. (2012). Growth of the ASEAN Countries: Determinants and Perspectives. SSRN Electronic Journal. 12(1): 1-34.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). (2014). Towards Green Growth in Southeast Asia Solutions for Policy
Makers. OECD.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). (2019). Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2019:
Towards Smart Urban Transportation. OECD.
Pramudianto, A. (2018). ASEAN Commitment to Sustainable Development in the Regional International Environmental Law Perspective. 6(3):
171-187.
PricewaterhouseCoopers. (2018). The Future of ASEAN Time to Act. PwC Growth Markets Centre. May 2018.
Raworth, K. (2017). Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st Century Economist. London: Clay Ltd, St Ives plc.
Resosudarmo, B.P., Nurdianto, D.A., and Yusuf, A.A. (2009). Greenhouse Gas Emission in Indonesia: The Significance of Fossil Fuel
Combustion. Indonesian Regional Science Association, pp. 146-159.
Rosa, E. (1998). Metatheoretical foundations for post-normal risk. Journal of Risk Research, 1(4), 15–44.
Sae-Lim, P. (2018). Structural Model of Opportunity Management (OM) towards Corporate Governance (CG) and Enterprise Risk Management
(ERM). Proceeding in ICAS 2018.
Sae-Lim, P. (2020). Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) as a Strategic Tool: The Empirical Study in Thai Listed Companies. Journal of Public
and Private Management. 27(1).
Saardchom, N. (2013). Enterprise Risk Management under Sustainability Platform. Journal of Business and Economics, 4(1): 49-259.
Stevens. A & Strauss, L. (2018). Chasing Digital: A Playbook from New Economy. USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Suksai, C. (2019). The Empirical Study of Institutional Factors Affecting the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 6 ASEAN Countries.
Association of Private Higher Education Institutions of Thailand (APHEIT). 8(1): 25-47.
Thanh, S.D. (2015). Threshold effects of inflation on growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach.
Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science.20 (1): 41–48.
The ASEAN Secretariat ASEAN Integration Monitoring Directorate (AIMD) and Community Relations Division (CRD). (2017). Asean
Economic Integration Brief NO 01. Regional Economic Outlook, Jakarta: Catalogue-in-Publication Data.
The ASEAN Secretariat ASEAN Integration Monitoring Directorate (AIMD) and Community Relations Division (CRD). (2018). Asean
Economic Integration Brief NO 04. Regional Economic Outlook, Jakarta: Catalogue-in-Publication Data.
The World Bank. (2019). The Changing Nature of Work.International Bank for Reconstruction and Development The World Bank, Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
UN Development Program. (1990). Human Development Report: Overview. New York: Oxford University Press.
UN Development Program. (2018). Human Development Indices and Indicators. New York: Oxford University Press.
Veenhiven, R. (2015). Social Conditions for Human Happiness. International Journal of Psychology. 50 (5): 379 – 391.
Weber, R. P. (1990). Basic content analysis. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
Wiking, M. (2019). The Key to Happiness: How to Find Purpose by Unlocking the Secrets of the World's Happiest People. England: Penguin
Life.
World Economic Forum. (2019). The Global Risks Report 2019 14th Edition. Geneva: World Economic Forum. .
World Economic Forum. (2017). The Global Risks Report 2017 12th Edition. Geneva: World Economic Forum.
World Economic Forum. (2017). The Inclusive Growth and Development Report 2017. Geneva World Economic Forum.
World Economic Forum. (2018). The Global Risks Report 2018 13th Edition. Geneva: World Economic Forum.
World Economic Forum. (2018). Regional Risks for Doing Business 2018. Geneva: World Economic Forum
Yunus, A. K. F, Benyamin, M., Maruki, and Fattah, S. (2017). Educated Unemployment in Indonesia: The Effects of Monetary Policy and Trade
Openness. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF). 8(2): 65-69.
Published
2020-06-30