ปัจจัยที่มีผลต่อราคาทองคำแท่งในประเทศไทย

Abstract

This research aims to study the factor determining the gold bullion price in Thailand where the model is constructed by analyzing the price equilibrium of demand for and supply of gold bullion market. ARCH model is adopted to estimate the parameters. The results show that manufacturing production index, consumer price index, 99.9 % pure bullion price in London, and exchange rate of Baht per U.S. dollar have positive relationship with bullion price in Thailand; while saving interest rate, dividend rate of firms registered in Stock Exchange of Thailand ( SET ), oil price in world market have negative relationship. This implies that investors should purchase gold bullion when manufacturing production index, consumer price index, 99.9 % pure bullion price in London and exchange rate of Baht per U.S. dollar tend to increase or when saving interest rate, dividend rate of firms registered in SET and oil price in world market tend to decrease.