สัดส่วนที่เหมาะสมของจำนวนนักท่องเที่ยวชาวต่างประเทศของไทย โดยใช้แนวคิดทางด้านการเงิน

Abstract

Tourism is an important industry for Thailand because it continually generates many economic activities as well as a large amount of the value added to Thailand. Especially, its value added is more than 547 billion baths from the foreign tourists in 2007 and tend to be increasing. Moreover, the tourism industry has also promoted the distribution of income and a local employment. However, a number of various international tourist arrivals to Thailand have been different in each year causing an obstacle to resources management of the country. Therefore, risk or uncertainty reduction of a number of tourists or the optimal tourist arrivals is very important for the efficiency improvement on the resources management. This study will apply the financial portfolio approach to reveal the risk reduction of a number of the tourist arrivals. The monthly data of the international tourist arrival to Thailand from January 1997 to November 2008 of Tourism Authority of Thailand are estimated by Markowitz Portfolio Theory. The empirical study showed that a small to medium expected (optimal) number of the international tourist arrivals, Thailand should mainly focus on the tourists from Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore. To be the highest expected international tourist arrivals, the tourists from others country should be increasingly spotlighted. However, the higher expected number of the international tourist arrivals, the higher risk of the international tourist arrivals.