Estimation of Carbon Dioxide Emissions form Passenger Cars in the United States

Abstract

Abstract

            The purpose of this paper is to improve a model proposed by Agras and Chapman (1999). The paper estimates the fuel consumption of passenger cars in the U.S. using data from 1968-1999 and project them to the year 2010. In addition, the paper also provides an analysis of two policies, CAFÉ standards and gasoline taxes that will lead to reduced carbon dioxide emissions by passenger cars. The sensitivity of the model will be evaluated using CAFÉ standards only, taxes only, and combination of both policies. The contribution of this paper will be to add more variables that have been shown to be relevant elsewhere to test the sensitivity of the refined model to the policy instruments.

            The results from the study indicate that carbon dioxide emission from using messenger cars are predicted to be 169.90 million metric tons in 2010, which is an increase of 0.82% from 1999. The implementation of increased CAFÉ standards and higher gasoline taxes would result in reduce carbon dioxide emission form passenger cars. The CAFÉ standards had more independent, statistically significant impact on fleet efficiency and the demand for gasoline than gasoline taxes through 1999. The study shows that the CAFÉ standards only case is the optimum solution in reducing carbon dioxide emissions and the worst case is when only gasoline tax is used.