การลดความรุนแรงจากความเคลื่อนไหวทางการเมืองของชนกลุ่มน้อย: ศึกษากรณีชาวมุสลิมเชื้อสายมลายูในจังหวัดชายแดนภาคใต้

Abstract

This paper examines why ethnic minority movements change their strategies from radical to moderate.  The author explores some factors that can explain the changes in strategies of ethnic minority movements by looking at the case of the Malay-Muslims in southern border provinces of Thailand.  The moderation which has arisen in ethnic movement strategies may be caused by many factors.  In this study, democratization of the system, better living standards, and cultural exchanges are considered to be the chief factors that created a general environment to change its strategy towards moderation.  Empirical data for testing these factors are obtained mainly from a survey of 30 leaders of the ethnic Malay movement, and supplemented by interviews.  Most of the movement leaders admitted that the factors of democratization of the system, better living standards, and cultural exchanges are more or less related to the change in the movement towards moderation.  These factors may be regarded as the “pull” factors which made a moderate strategy more attractive to the movement leaders.  At the same time, certain “push” factors were also found to be at work.  These include the coercive power of the Thai government, the greater difficulty in continuing armed struggles, and the decline in internal and external support.  This study has focused on the pull factors without which moderation is unlikely to occur.