Forecasting of the Number of Polish Tourists: Emerging Market Tourists Arrival in Thailand

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Nalinee Phansaita


This article aimed to forecast the number of Polish tourist arrivals in Thailand. The time series decomposition method was applied. Data used for the forecasting were quarterly tourist arrivals from the first quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2017 (20 values), gathered by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. Results showed that the Polish tourist arrivals in Thailand were likely to be increased by the influence of trends and seasonality. The highest number of Polish tourist arrivals in Thailand was in the first quarter (58.24% higher than normal) and the fourth quarter (33.47% higher than normal). The lowest number of Polish tourist arrivals in Thailand was in the third quarter (47.85% lower than normal) and the second quarter (43.86% lower than normal). The forecast model was found to be extremely accurate with the mean absolute percentage error of 5.46% (MAPE = 5.46%)

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Phansaita, N. . (2020). Forecasting of the Number of Polish Tourists: Emerging Market Tourists Arrival in Thailand. Dusit Thani College Journal, 12(3), 616–628. Retrieved from
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