Using the Fundamental Analysis to Forecast the Market Price of Listed Banking Industry in The Stock Exchange of Thailand

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Kittiwan Sinthunava

Abstract

The research aimed to (1) analyse the fundamental factors that impact the market price of the listed banking industry in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), and (2) develop a manual for fundamental analysis to forecast the market price of the listed banking industry in the SET. The population were financial statements that had been recording in quarterly, the listed banking industry over 5 years; 2015 to 2019. The samples were 11 banks that were listed in the SET as follows; BAY, BBL, CIMBT, KBANK, KKP, KTB, LHFG, SCB, TCAP, TISCO and TMB. A mixed methodology was applied through both quantitative and qualitative studies to analyse the fundamental factors that impact upon the market price. The findings revealed two significant topics as follows. Firstly, there were three fundamental factors that impacted upon the market price. 1) Information on politics and leading economic index both inside and outside the country. 2) Information that impacted directly on the banking industry, such as the regulations from the Bank of Thailand (BOT), which had been used to control and monitor the financial institutions. 3) Information that specifically impacted on an individual bank, such as the 10 financial ratios. These included: deposits to total liabilities ratio, gross income ratio, total operating expense to total operating income ratio, net income ratio, return on equity ratio, net interest income on total assets, yield on loan ratio, total asset turnover ratio, total debt to total equity ratio and earning per share. The second topic being the development of the manual for fundamental analysis, so to forecast the market price of listed banking industry in the SET. This consisted of five parts: 1) introduction to the banking industry, 2) the fundamental analysis, 3) the securities exchange of Thailand, 4) the investment decisions, and 5) the investment evaluation.

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บทความวิจัย (Research Article)

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