THE INFLUENCE OF FOREIGN TRADE ON CHINESE PROVINCIAL’S TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF “BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE”
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Abstract
Taking 30 provinces in China as the study objects, and the five years around 2013, when the Belt and Road was proposed (2008-2018), as the time dimension, this paper empirically verifies the impact of foreign trade on the total factor productivity or technological progress in China’s provinces in the context of “The Belt and Road” with the dual difference model. The study shows that “The Belt and Road” initiative had significantly promoted the TFP in various provinces and cities in China, while foreign trade had a significantly inhibitory effect on TFP, and the inhibitory effect is more significant in the eastern region; In addition to the overall analysis, this paper conducts the division of China to analyze the regional differences and the mechanism of action. The Belt and Road initiative positively affected the growth rate of TFP in the central and western regions by promoting technological progress, while the promotion effect in the eastern regions was mainly exerted through the promotion of technological progress; The foreign trade had a negative effect on the regional TFP mainly by affecting technological progress, and had a positive effect on the improvement of TFP in the central and western regions by promoting scale efficiency. Finally, based on the empirical results, corresponding policy suggestions are put forward, hoping to provide some ideas for the high-quality economic development of China’s provinces in the new era.
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