การส่งผ่านอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนต่อดัชนีราคาสินค้าในประเทศไทย
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บทคัดย่อ
Understanding the exchange rate pass-through is an important implication for all central banks in open economies such as Thailand as it helps policy makers forecast inflation and decide how much to tighten monetary policy regarding to an inflation increasing. This paper investigates the degree of exchange rate pass-through in Thailand, using the new framework called the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) introduced by Shin et al. (2013). The advantage of this model is to simultaneously accommodate asymmetry in both the long-run and short-run pass-through. The results reveal the zero pass-through to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) in the long-run, implying that Thai Baht depreciation (or appreciation) does not affect any domestic prices in Thailand in the long-run. However, the partial pass-through to CPI and PPI exists in the short-run. Also, the results strongly confirm the asymmetric pass-through in the short-run which an appreciation of Thai Baht is passed-through more strongly than a depreciation of Thai Baht.
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สงวนลิขสิทธิ์ © 2553 คณะเศรษฐศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยศรีนครินทรวิโรฒ
คณะเศรษฐศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยศรีนครินทรวิโรฒ จัดพิมพ์วารสารเศรษฐศาสตร์และนโยบายสาธารณะ เพื่อเผยแพร่บทความวิชาการทางเศรษฐศาสตร์ นโยบายสารธารณะ และสาขาอื่นๆที่เกี่ยวข้อง ทัศนะและข้อคิดเห็นใดๆ ที่ปรากฏในวารสารเป็นความคิดเห็นส่วนตัวของผู้เขียน โดยบทความที่ได้รับการตอบรับจะถือเป็นลิขสิทธิ์ของคณะเศรษฐศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยศรีนครินทรวิโรฒ
บรรณาธิการ ผู้ช่วยศาสตราจารย์ ดร.ณัฐญา ประไพพานิช
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