The Estimation of International Tourism Demand Share for Thailand by Characteristic Mode

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พัฒน์ พัฒนรังสรรค์


This research aimed to: 1) develop a model of international tourism demand share for Thailand; and 2) determine factors affecting tourism demand share of foreign tourist arrivals in the east coast region of Thailand using the concept of characteristic model which comprises the characteristics of destinations, the characteristics of tourists’ countries and the characteristics reflecting economic as well as external factors. Three-dimensional panel data were employed from the 1st quarter of 2009 to the 4th quarter of 2015, totaling 28 quarters, across ten home countries, i.e. Australia, China, India, Japan, Malaysia, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the USA, and four provinces in the East Coast Tourism Development Region of Thailand, i.e. Chon Buri, Rayong, Chanthaburi, and Trat.

The research applied the Non-linear Seemingly Unrelated Regression to simultaneously estimate the model for each destination province. The results revealed that the factors affecting the tourism demand share of the selected destination for the tourists from one country, at the statistical significance level of 0.10, were the distance from Suvarnabhuni airport to the destination province, the coastal length in the destination province, the computer use in the destination province, the core consumer price index in the destination province, the number of electricity users in the destination province, the number of crimes in the destination province, the population in the destination province, the gross regional and provincial product of the destination province, the number of rooms in the destination province, the exchange rate of tourists’ country currency against the Thai baht, the dummy variable representing it being a member of ASEAN country, the dummy variable representing it being a developed country, the average room rate in Thailand, the Dubai crude oil price, the world gross domestic product index, and the Hamburger crisis and political crisis in Thailand.


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