Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Simulation for Risk Reduction of Rain-fed Rice Production in Central Region

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นิโรจน์ สินณรงค์
กษมา ถาอ้าย
ศิริพร พันธุลี
ฉันทนา ซูแสวงทรัพย์
Olalekan Israel Aiikulola

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impacts of climate change on rice production and adaptation for risk reduction of rain-fed rice production in Central Region.  Based on the rice production and weather panel data from 25 provinces over the 1989-2014 periods, the unit root tests and feasible generalized least squares are performed to obtain efficiency estimates of rice production function.  The climate change projection results shown that mean rice production projected to decrease by 0.70-10.07% whereas variance of rice production projected to increase by 1.78-7.72% in 2030-2090.  The adaptation simulation provided evidence that lating planting dates and shorting planting dates can be reduced production risk by 0.76-22.07% and 10.22-21.78%, respectively. These eco-friendly adaptations can reduce rice production risk from adverse effect of future climate change.

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บทความวิจัย (Research Article)

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