Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Simulation for Risk Reduction of Rain-fed Rice Production in Central Region

Main Article Content

นิโรจน์ สินณรงค์
กษมา ถาอ้าย
ศิริพร พันธุลี
ฉันทนา ซูแสวงทรัพย์
Olalekan Israel Aiikulola


This study aims to analyze the impacts of climate change on rice production and adaptation for risk reduction of rain-fed rice production in Central Region.  Based on the rice production and weather panel data from 25 provinces over the 1989-2014 periods, the unit root tests and feasible generalized least squares are performed to obtain efficiency estimates of rice production function.  The climate change projection results shown that mean rice production projected to decrease by 0.70-10.07% whereas variance of rice production projected to increase by 1.78-7.72% in 2030-2090.  The adaptation simulation provided evidence that lating planting dates and shorting planting dates can be reduced production risk by 0.76-22.07% and 10.22-21.78%, respectively. These eco-friendly adaptations can reduce rice production risk from adverse effect of future climate change.


Download data is not yet available.

Article Details

บทความวิจัย (Research Article)


Agarwal A. (2008). Forecasting rice yield under climate scenarios and evaluation of agro-adaptation measures for Mekong basin region: a simulation study. Thesis of master degree of engineering in water engineering and management. Asian Institute of Technology.
Antle, J.M. 2010. Asymmetry, Partial Moments, and Production Risk. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 92(5): 1294–1309.
Anuchiracheeva S, Pinkaew T, 2009. Jasmine Rice in the Weeping Plain: Adapting Rice Farming to Climate Change in Northeast Thailand. Oxfam, GB. . [Online]. Retrieved August12, 2018, from:
Babel, M. S., Agarwal, A., Swain, D.K., and Herath, S. 2011. Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures for Rice Cultivation in Northeast Thailand. Climate Research 46: 137–146
Battese, G. E., Rambaldi, A. N. and Wan, G. H. 1997. A Stochastic Frontier Production Function with Flexible Risk Properties.Journal of Productivity Analysis8: 269–280.
Buddhaboon, C., Kongton, S. and Jintrawet, A. 2005. Climate Scenario Verification and Impact on Rain-fed Rice Production. The Study of Future Climate Changes Impact on Water Resource and Rain-fed Agriculture Production. Proceedings of the APN CAPaBLE CB-01 Synthesis Workshop, Vientiane, Lao PDR, 29 - 30 July 2004. SEA START RC Technical Report No. 13.
Cabas, J., Weersink, A., and Olale, E. 2010. Crop Yield Response to Economic, Site and Climatic Variables. Climatic Change 101: 559-616.
Chen, C. C., McCarl, B. A., and Schimmelpfennig, D. E. 2004. Yield Variability as Influenced by Climate: A Statistical Investigation. Climatic Change 66(1-2): 239-261.
Chinvanno, S. 2009. Future Climate Projection for Thailand and Surrounding Countries: Climate change scenario of 21st century. Proceedings of The First China-Thailand Joint Seminar on Climate Change 23-24 March. Southeast Asia START Regional Center, Bangkok.
Di Falco, S. and Chavas, J.P. 2009. On Crop Biodiversity, Risk Exposure, and Food Security in the Highlands of Ethiopia. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 91(3): 599–611.
Gardebroek, C., Chavez, M-D.and Lansink, A-O. 2010. Analysing Production Technology and Risk in Organic and Conventional Dutch Arable Farming using Panel Data. Journal of Agricultural Economics 61(1): 60–75.
Hasanthika, M. A., Edirisinghe, J. C. and Rajapakshe, R. D. 2013. Climate Variability, Risk and Paddy Production. Journal of Environmental Professionals Sri Lanka 2(2): 57-65.
Hertel, T.W., and Rosch, S.D. 2010. Climate Change, Agriculture, and Poverty. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 32(3): 355–385.
IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp.
Isavilanontha, S., Praneetwattakul, S., and Kumwong, C. 2009. Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand. Thailand Research Fund. Bangkok. (In Thai)
สมพร อิศวิลานนท์, สุวรรณา ประณีตวตกุล, และชนาพร คำวงษ์. 2552. การประเมินผลกระทบทางเศรษฐศาสตร์ของการเปลี่ยนแปลงสภาพภูมิอากาศโลกต่อการผลิตข้าวในประเทศไทย. สำนักงานกองทุนสนับสนุนการวิจัย. กรุงเทพ.
Just, R.E., and Pope, R.D. 1979. Production Function Estimation and Related Risk Considerations. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 61: 276–284.
King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi. 2016. Regional Climate Modeling. King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi. Bangkok. [Online]. Retrieved March12, 2016, from: (In Thai)
มหาวิทยาลัยเทคโนโลยีพระจอมเกล้าธนบุรี. 2559. Regional Climate Modeling. ศูนย์ประสานงานและพัฒนางานวิจัยด้านโลกร้อนและการเปลี่ยนแปลงสภาพภูมิอากาศ.สำนักงานกองทุนสนับสนุนการวิจัย (Thai-GLOB). มหาวิทยาลัยเทคโนโลยีพระจอมเกล้าธนบุรี. กรุงเทพ:ออนไลน์: (18 มกราคม 2559).
Lasco R.D., Habito C.M.D., Delfi, R.J.P., Pulhin F.B., Concepcion R.N. 2011. Climate Change Adaptation for Smallholder Farmers in Southeast Asia. World Agroforestry Centre, Philippines.
Matthews, R.B., Kropff, M.J., Horie, T. and Bachelet, D. 1997. Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Asia and Evaluation Option for Adaptation. Agricultural Systems 54(3):399-425.
McCarl, B. A., Villavicencio, X., and Wu, X. 2008. Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying? American Journal of Agricultural Economics 90(5):1241-1247.
Musshoff, O., Odening, M. and Xu, W. 2011. Management of climate risks in agriculture-will weather derivatives permeate?. Applied Economics 43(9): 1067-1077.
Nhemachena, C, and Hassan, R. 2007. Micro-Level Analysis of Farmers’ Adaptation to Climate Change in Southern Africa.IFPRI Discussion Paper 00714.
Nirote Sinnarong. 2013. Essays on the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Production.Doctoral Dissertation of Applied Economics. National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan.
Office of Agricutural Economics. 2012. Rain-fed Rice production Forecasting (Crop year 2012/2013). Office of Agricutural Economics. Bangkok. (In Thai)
สำนักงานเศรษฐกิจการเกษตร. 2555. ผลการพยากรณ์การผลิตข้าวนาปี ปี 2556 (ปีการเพาะปลูก 2555/2556).สำนักงานเศรษฐกิจการเกษตร.กรุงเทพ.
Office of Agricutural Economics. 2014. Agricultural Production Statistic. Office of Agricutural Economics. Bangkok. (In Thai)
สำนักงานเศรษฐกิจการเกษตร. 2557. สถิติการผลิตสินค้าเกษตร. สำนักงานเศรษฐกิจการเกษตร.กรุงเทพ.
Office of Agricutural Economics. 2017. Situation and Trend of Agricultural Commodities in 2018. Office of Agricutural Economics. Bangkok. (In Thai)
สำนักงานเศรษฐกิจการเกษตร. 2560. สถานการณ์สินค้าเกษตรที่สำคัญและแนวโน้ม ปี 2561. สำนักงานเศรษฐกิจการเกษตร.กรุงเทพ.
Shankar, B., Bennett, R., and Morse, S. 2007. Output Risk Aspects of Genetically Modified Crop Technology in South Africa. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 16(4): 277-291.
Thai Meteorological Department. 2014. Weather Statistics. Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society. Bangkok. (In Thai)
กรมอุตุนิยมวิทยา. 2558. สถิติสภาพอากาศ. กระทรวงดิจิตัลเพื่อเศรษฐกิจและสังคม. กรุงเทพ.
Wassmann, R., and Dobermann, A. 2007. Climate Change Adaptation through Rice Production in Regions with High Poverty Levels. ICRISAT eJournal 4(1):1-24.