Accrual-Based Earnings Management, Firm Performance, and Capital Structure, Influencing Earnings Surprises among Companies Listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand
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Abstract
This study aims to examine the effects of accrual-based earnings management, firm performance, and capital structure on earnings surprises of companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The sample consists of SET100 firms, excluding those in the financial and insurance sectors, with 194 firm-year observations during 2021–2025. Data were collected from the SETSMART database and annual reports. The statistical methods used include descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation analysis, and multiple regression analysis at the 0.05 significance level.
The findings contribute to the earnings surprise aspect by providing empirical evidence from an emerging capital market that firm performance and firm size have significant but opposite effects on earnings surprises. Specifically, higher return on assets is associated with greater earnings surprises, whereas larger firm size is associated with lower earnings surprises. The study also demonstrates that accrual-based earnings management and capital structure do not significantly affect earnings surprises after controlling for other firm characteristics. These findings extend understanding of the firm-specific determinants of earnings surprises and provide useful implications for investors, financial analysts, corporate managers, and regulators in assessing the information contained in reported earnings, including financial planning and corporate sustainability development.
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