Study of the Latent Population to Allocate Appropriate Subsidies to Local Government Organizations in the case of the City Municipality

Abstract

This quantitative research article develops a technique for estimating parallel latent populations in city municipalities. With direct and indirect secondary data on demography, hidden population, electricity consumption, and subsidies to 30 municipalities during 2022-2023. The objective is to study the approach for estimating the latent population in the municipality by using direct secondary data from the provincial latent population survey, the population registration, and indirect secondary data from electricity consumption in the provincial area. And including studying the analysis method for the adequacy of budget allocation for subsidies based on the total population living in the actual area. There are five steps in the estimation technique: (1) estimating the total direct and indirect population of the province; (2) estimating the indirect hidden population of the province; (3) checking the coverage of the provincial direct latent population survey; (4) estimating the direct and indirect latent population of municipalities; and (5) estimating the total population of municipalities. In analyzing the level of adequacy of public services with subsidies. Considered from the criterion of 2D population expansion rate and the criterion of average difference in subsidy per capita.
The study results found that Thai society has entered the aging society, which is reflected in the decline of the population registered in 23 municipalities during 2022-2023. As urban expansion resulted in an average increase in the total population of 15 municipalities, this was reflected in an average increase in the latent population of 16 municipalities. The results of the calculation of the proportion of indirect latent population to direct latent population of the 9 provinces where the municipality is located, which have a proportion value greater than (>) 1, reflect that the central government's provincial latent population survey may not cover some latent population groups. They are expected to be foreigners who come to work and reside in municipalities located near provincial areas that are service and tourism centers. and industrially concentrated provinces in the provincial areas surrounding Bangkok. including major cities and border areas. As a result of urban expansion, there has been competition for subsidies among the registered population with an average of 21 percent. This is considered important information for the central government in considering the allocation of resources sufficient to meet the actual demand for public services in the municipality area.